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SEAMinnesota at Detroit: what decides it
MIN at DET, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model DET 73%, market DET 60%.
Week 8, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Minnesota visit Detroit. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| MIN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.10 (29th) | +0.14 (4th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.19 (1st) | +0.13 (31st) |
| Offence success rate | 36% (31st) | 50% (2nd) |
| Third-down conversion | 39% (22nd) | 39% (21st) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 21% (11th) | 18% (4th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 35% (1st) | 24% (7th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 53% (27th) | 71% (6th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-7 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Detroit's pass rush (7th in pressure generated) against a Minnesota line ranked 11th in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup. Minnesota's defence (1st) should have the upper hand on Detroit's offence (4th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 7 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Justin Jefferson against Detroit: the shot plays are there. Detroit rank 27th against deep balls, and 12% of Jefferson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the right side: 43% of his targets go that way and Detroit rank 26th defending throws there.
Amon-Ra St. Brown against Minnesota: no obvious soft spot. Minnesota are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Brown's likeliest route is short throws (62% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
Jared Goff against Minnesota: a tough day in the air. Minnesota rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (19th). Pressure: Minnesota are 1st at getting sacks, and Detroit are 14th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Detroit at 73% (medium confidence), with a line of DET by 9.3. The market agrees on the side at 60% (DET by 3). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-31T09-12-41Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
