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SEADallas 38, Philadelphia 21: how it played out
We had Dallas at 59%. The market had Dallas by 4.5. Dallas won 38-21 at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia started Tanner McKee rather than Jalen Hurts.
We had Dallas at 59%. The market had Dallas by 4.5. Dallas won 38-21 at Lincoln Financial Field. Our lean held, but at 59% that was close to a coin flip.
How it swung
1. In the 2nd quarter (9:10), Javonte Williams ran for 4 yards, a 6-point swing in win probability towards Dallas.
2. In the 3rd quarter (10:34), Tanner McKee found Makai Lemon for 15 yards, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Philadelphia.
3. In the 4th quarter (7:55), DeMarvion Overshown intercepted Tanner McKee's short throw for Dallas Goedert, a 12-point swing in win probability towards Dallas.
Who played quarterback
Philadelphia started Tanner McKee rather than Jalen Hurts.
Who won the matchups
CeeDee Lamb against Philadelphia: Even. Lamb had 74 yards on 12 targets, close to his usual 84.
Dallas Goedert against Dallas: Goedert won it. 48 yards on 7 targets, above his usual 41.
Not much. A 59% lean landing is close to a coin flip going our way; Philadelphia started Tanner McKee, not Jalen Hurts, and the model rated them on Jalen Hurts's games. The full record, including the misses, is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 7; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-26T09-15-37Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
