SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SFWeek 5 graded: 11‑4, market 9‑6
We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
Every week we grade every pick we published, against the result and against the market. Week 5: the model went 11-4; the market favourite went 9-6. We beat the market this week.
Where we were wrong
DAL at 72% (TB 24 @ DAL 16). CHI at 65% (CHI 7 @ GB 31). LAR at 55% (BUF 37 @ LAR 34). The most confident misses are the ones worth learning from, so they go first.
Us vs the market
We were right where the market was wrong 2 times (NYG, BAL); the market was right where we were wrong 0 times.
One note on the market's number. It's graded at the odds when we published our picks, so the comparison is like for like: 9-6. At closing prices the market went 9-5. The difference: BUF @ LAR (LAR were favourites when we published, LA closed as favourites, BUF won).
| Game | Pick | Model % | Score | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ JAX | JAX | 78% | 17-19 | Right | Right |
| TB @ DAL | DAL | 72% | 24-16 | Wrong | Wrong |
| DET @ ARI | DET | 72% | 45-21 | Right | Right |
| CIN @ MIA | CIN | 69% | 31-24 | Right | Right |
| HOU @ TEN | HOU | 68% | 26-3 | Right | Right |
| DEN @ LAC | DEN | 66% | 23-17 | Right | Right |
| CHI @ GB | CHI | 65% | 7-31 | Wrong | Wrong |
| NYG @ WAS | NYG | 62% | 27-27 | Right | Wrong |
| MIN @ NO | MIN | 61% | 23-13 | Right | Right |
| LV @ NE | NE | 55% | 17-45 | Right | Right |
| BUF @ LAR | LAR | 55% | 37-34 | Wrong | Wrong |
| SF @ SEA | SEA | 54% | 32-29 | Wrong | Wrong |
| BAL @ ATL | BAL | 53% | 30-23 | Right | Wrong |
| CLE @ NYJ | NYJ | 53% | 12-17 | Right | Right |
| IND @ PIT | PIT | 50% | 22-34 | Right | Right |
Every week 5 pick, most confident first
Picking winners is not beating the price. Across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative. Use the model as one view of the game, not as a tip.
Sources: results_dashboard.json (2026-10-13T09:00:56.684177Z). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.