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SFWashington 27, the Giants 27: the backup who won it
We had the Giants at 63%. The market had Washington by 3.5. It finished level, 27-27. Washington started Jayden Daniels rather than Marcus Mariota (Marcus Mariota was ruled Out).
We had the Giants at 63%. The market had Washington by 3.5. It finished level, 27-27. We were wrong, and so was the market.
How it swung
2. In overtime (8:01), Dominic Zvada missed from 46 yards, a 36-point swing in win probability towards Washington.
3. In overtime (5:39), Tress Way punts 42 yards to nyg 9, fair catch by Charlie Jones, a 40-point swing in win probability towards Washington.
5. With 2:00 left, Cam Skattebo up the middle to was 24 for no gain. fumbles, recovered by Shy Tuttle at was 23, a 26-point swing in win probability towards the Giants.
Who played quarterback
Washington started Jayden Daniels rather than Marcus Mariota (Marcus Mariota was ruled Out).
Who won the matchups
Malik Nabers against Washington: Nabers won it. 121 yards on 20 targets, above his usual 70.
Chig Okonkwo against the Giants: Okonkwo won it. 60 yards on 6 targets, above his usual 31.
Jameis Winston against Washington: Winston won it. +0.19 EPA a dropback, above his usual -0.06.
The reasons that mattered: the Giants turned it over 2 times to 0, which no pre-game number prices; Marcus Mariota was listed Out, but our model's check for a missing starting quarterback didn't register it, a bug we're fixing.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 5; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-11T10-29-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.