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LATampa Bay at Dallas: what decides it
TB at DAL, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model DAL 72%, market DAL 79%.
Week 5, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Tampa Bay visit Dallas. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| TB | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.15 (31st) | +0.17 (6th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.06 (6th) | +0.20 (32nd) |
| Offence success rate | 39% (28th) | 48% (8th) |
| Third-down conversion | 36% (22nd) | 53% (3rd) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 25% (25th) | 22% (14th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 21% (22nd) | 21% (20th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 43% (31st) | 78% (4th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-4 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Dallas's protection (14th in pressure allowed) should hold up against Tampa Bay's rush (22nd). Dallas's pass rush (20th in pressure generated) against a Tampa Bay line ranked 25th in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup.
A caveat worth keeping: that's 4 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Emeka Egbuka against Dallas: best way in: intermediate throws. Dallas rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 40% of Egbuka's targets. Work the middle: 26% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 32nd defending throws there.
CeeDee Lamb against Tampa Bay: best way in: intermediate throws. Tampa Bay rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 31% of Lamb's targets. Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Tampa Bay rank 22nd defending throws there.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Dallas at 72% (medium confidence), with a line of DAL by 8.7. The market agrees on the side at 79% (DAL by 8.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
TB starting QB Baker Mayfield is Out
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-07T09-15-58Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.