ATL
NOWeek 4 graded: 11‑5, market 9‑7
We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
Every week we grade every pick we published, against the result and against the market. Week 4: the model went 11-5; the market favourite went 9-7. We beat the market this week.
Where we were wrong
BUF at 78% (NE 29 @ BUF 26). DET at 69% (DET 26 @ CAR 32). NO at 52% (ATL 45 @ NO 24). The most confident misses are the ones worth learning from, so they go first.
Us vs the market
We were right where the market was wrong 4 times (JAX, DAL, CLE, NYG); the market was right where we were wrong 2 times (GB, IND).
| Game | Pick | Model % | Score | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ BAL | BAL | 81% | 18-24 | Right | Right |
| LAC @ SEA | SEA | 80% | 23-30 | Right | Right |
| DEN @ SF | SF | 80% | 14-24 | Right | Right |
| NE @ BUF | BUF | 78% | 29-26 | Wrong | Wrong |
| DET @ CAR | DET | 69% | 26-32 | Wrong | Wrong |
| MIA @ MIN | MIN | 69% | 10-15 | Right | Right |
| KC @ LV | KC | 68% | 30-27 | Right | Right |
| NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 66% | 12-23 | Right | Right |
| JAX @ CIN | JAX | 62% | 22-17 | Right | Wrong |
| LAR @ PHI | LAR | 58% | 24-20 | Right | Right |
| DAL @ HOU | DAL | 53% | 34-30 | Right | Wrong |
| PIT @ CLE | CLE | 53% | 24-27 | Right | Wrong |
| ATL @ NO | NO | 52% | 45-24 | Wrong | Wrong |
| ARI @ NYG | NYG | 51% | 24-36 | Right | Wrong |
| GB @ TB | TB | 51% | 17-14 | Wrong | Right |
| IND @ WAS | WAS | 50% | 30-13 | Wrong | Right |
Every week 4 pick, most confident first
Picking winners is not beating the price. Across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative. Use the model as one view of the game, not as a tip.
Sources: results_dashboard.json (2026-10-06T09:00:44.322632Z). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
