CHI
SEADetroit 19, Minnesota 15: how it played out
We had Detroit at 73%. The market had Detroit by 3. Detroit won 19-15 at Ford Field.
We had Detroit at 73%. The market had Detroit by 3. Detroit won 19-15 at Ford Field. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
2. In the 2nd quarter (1:51), D.J. Reed intercepted Kyler Murray's short throw for Jordan Addison, a 9-point swing in win probability towards Detroit.
3. In the 3rd quarter (9:54), Jake Bates missed from 46 yards, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Minnesota.
5. In the 4th quarter (10:16), Kyler Murray found Jordan Addison for 51 yards, a 16-point swing in win probability towards Minnesota.
Who won the matchups
Justin Jefferson against Detroit: Detroit won it. Jefferson held to 33 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 53.
Amon-Ra St. Brown against Minnesota: Minnesota won it. Brown held to 46 yards on 8 targets, against his usual 88.
Jared Goff against Minnesota: Minnesota won it. Goff managed -0.14 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.19.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 8; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-11-01T09-12-49Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
