DAL
PHIAtlanta 29, San Francisco 20: what nobody priced
We had San Francisco at 72%. The market had San Francisco by 2.5. Atlanta won 29-20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
We had San Francisco at 72%. The market had San Francisco by 2.5. Atlanta won 29-20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. We were wrong, and so was the market.
How it swung
2. In the 2nd quarter (4:24), Kaelon Black lost it after a -1-yard run; Gervon Dexter Sr. recovered the fumble, a 15-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
3. In the 3rd quarter (5:41), Jessie Bates intercepted Brock Purdy's short throw for Jacob Cowing, a 11-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
5. In the 4th quarter (2:42), Kendal Daniels intercepted Brock Purdy's short throw for Jordan Watkins, a 10-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
Who won the matchups
George Kittle against Atlanta: Kittle won it. 88 yards on 10 targets, above his usual 57.
Drake London against San Francisco: Even. London had 80 yards on 10 targets, close to his usual 83.
Michael Penix Jr. against San Francisco: Penix won it. +0.28 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.07.
The reasons that mattered: San Francisco turned it over 4 times to 0, which no pre-game number prices.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 7; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-25T09-12-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
