CHI
SEAWeek 8 graded: 12‑2, market 10‑4
We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
Every week we grade every pick we published, against the result and against the market. Week 8: the model went 12-2; the market favourite went 10-4. We beat the market this week.
Where we were wrong
DAL at 62% (ARI 33 @ DAL 30). KC at 58% (KC 24 @ DEN 28). The most confident misses are the ones worth learning from, so they go first.
Us vs the market
We were right where the market was wrong 2 times (CHI, LV); the market was right where we were wrong 0 times.
One note on the market's number. It's graded at the odds when we published our picks, so the comparison is like for like: 10-4. At closing prices the market went 11-3. The difference: LAC @ LAR (LAR were favourites when we published, LA closed as favourites, LA won); KC @ DEN (KC were favourites when we published, DEN closed as favourites, DEN won).
| Game | Pick | Model % | Score | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ CIN | CIN | 82% | 36-43 | Right | Right |
| LAC @ LAR | LAR | 81% | 9-24 | Right | Right |
| IND @ JAX | JAX | 76% | 7-42 | Right | Right |
| MIN @ DET | DET | 73% | 15-19 | Right | Right |
| NE @ MIA | NE | 71% | 24-19 | Right | Right |
| BAL @ BUF | BUF | 68% | 10-36 | Right | Right |
| CLE @ PIT | PIT | 66% | 6-27 | Right | Right |
| ARI @ DAL | DAL | 62% | 33-30 | Wrong | Wrong |
| CAR @ GB | GB | 60% | 19-27 | Right | Right |
| KC @ DEN | KC | 58% | 24-28 | Wrong | Wrong |
| PHI @ WAS | WAS | 57% | 10-27 | Right | Right |
| ATL @ TB | TB | 56% | 0-16 | Right | Right |
| CHI @ SEA | CHI | 52% | 34-17 | Right | Wrong |
| LV @ NYJ | LV | 51% | 38-33 | Right | Wrong |
Every week 8 pick, most confident first
Picking winners is not beating the price. Across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative. Use the model as one view of the game, not as a tip.
Sources: results_dashboard.json (2026-11-03T09:00:47.427017Z). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
