Chicago 34, Seattle 17: our lean held, the market's didn't
We had Chicago at 52%. The market had Seattle by 3. Chicago won 34-17 at Lumen Field.
We had Chicago at 52%. The market had Seattle by 3. Chicago won 34-17 at Lumen Field. Our lean held, but at 52% that was close to a coin flip. The market leaned the other way.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (10:58), D'Andre Swift ran for 5 yards, a 8-point swing in win probability towards Chicago.
2. In the 2nd quarter (0:37), Sam Darnold found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a 43-yard touchdown, a 15-point swing in win probability towards Seattle.
3. In the 4th quarter (13:14), Colston Loveland lost it after a 8-yard catch; DeMarcus Lawrence recovered the fumble, a 10-point swing in win probability towards Seattle.
Who won the matchups
Rome Odunze against Seattle: Odunze won it. 87 yards on 6 targets, against his usual 52.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Chicago: Smith-Njigba won it. Smith-Njigba won it deep: 43 of his 118 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.
Caleb Williams against Seattle: Even. Williams at +0.15 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.13.
Not much. A 52% lean landing is close to a coin flip going our way. The full record, including the misses, is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 8; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-11-02T09-19-15Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
