SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SFBaltimore 30, Atlanta 23: the backup who won it
We had Baltimore at 53%. The market had Atlanta by 3.5. Baltimore won 30-23 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Baltimore started Tyler Huntley rather than Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson was ruled Out).
We had Baltimore at 53%. The market had Atlanta by 3.5. Baltimore won 30-23 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our lean held, but at 53% that was close to a coin flip. The market leaned the other way.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (8:14), Tyler Huntley found Mark Andrews for a 9-yard touchdown, a 20-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
4. In overtime (2:57), Tyler Loop extra point is good, a 26-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
5. In overtime (2:11), Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa's short throw for Drake London, a 50-point swing in win probability towards Baltimore.
Who played quarterback
Baltimore started Tyler Huntley rather than Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson was ruled Out). Baltimore also used Zay Flowers (1 dropback) at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. was hurt during the game and came back; Tua Tagovailoa (3 dropbacks) filled in.
Who won the matchups
Zay Flowers against Atlanta: Atlanta won it. Flowers held to 53 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 78.
Drake London against Baltimore: London won it. London won it deep: 25 of his 118 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.
Not much. A 53% lean landing is close to a coin flip going our way. The full record, including the misses, is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 5; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-11T10-29-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.