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SFBaltimore at Atlanta: model and market split
BAL at ATL, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model BAL 60%, market ATL 61%.
Week 5, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Baltimore visit Atlanta. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| BAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.19 (3rd) | -0.02 (18th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.02 (11th) | -0.06 (8th) |
| Offence success rate | 52% (2nd) | 49% (5th) |
| Third-down conversion | 33% (28th) | 37% (20th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 21% (7th) | 16% (2nd) |
| Pressure rate generated | 20% (22nd) | 26% (8th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 78% (4th) | 85% (3rd) |
Season to date, weeks 1-4 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Atlanta's protection (2nd in pressure allowed) should hold up against Baltimore's rush (22nd). Baltimore's defence (11th) should have the upper hand on Atlanta's offence (18th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 4 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Zay Flowers against Atlanta: best way in: intermediate throws. Atlanta rank 27th against intermediate throws, which make up 25% of Flowers's targets. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 24th defending throws there.
Drake London against Baltimore: the shot plays are there. Baltimore rank 27th against deep balls, and 15% of London's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the left side: 43% of his targets go that way and Baltimore rank 21st defending throws there.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Baltimore at 60% (low confidence), with a line of BAL by 5.1. The market disagrees: it makes Atlanta 61% favourites at ATL by 3. That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-08T09-10-43Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.