Chicago 27, Philadelphia 7: the backup who won it
Case Keenum started for the injured Caleb Williams and didn't turn it over once. Philadelphia turned it over three times, including Andy Dalton's only throw of the night at the goal line.
We had Philadelphia at 57%. The market had them by 3.5. Chicago won 27-7 at Soldier Field, so we were wrong, and so was the market.
How it swung
Chicago led 10-0 in the second quarter when Jalen Hurts was hurt on a scramble. Andy Dalton came in for one snap, and his only pass was intercepted by D. Thieneman at the goal line, the biggest single swing of the game (13% of win probability). Hurts returned, but Philadelphia never got closer than 10-7.
Chicago put it away in the third quarter. Keenum found Kalif Raymond for a 41-yard touchdown, and Raymond finished with 90 yards on six catches. A fourth-down conversion to S. Roush earlier in the game kept a scoring drive alive.
Who won the matchups
DeVonta Smith against Chicago: Smith won it. 30 of his 65 yards came on throws of 20 or more yards, which is where we expected Chicago to be vulnerable. Rome Odunze against Philadelphia: Even. 44 yards on 6 targets, close to his usual 52.
Caleb Williams was listed Out, but our model's check for a missing starting quarterback didn't register it, so it priced Chicago as if he were playing. That made Chicago look stronger, not weaker, so it isn't why we picked Philadelphia, but it is a bug and we're fixing it. The bigger reason we were wrong is the one nobody priced: three Philadelphia turnovers and none from Chicago.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 3; our published pre-kickoff run, 28 Sept 2026. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
