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SFJacksonville 19, Philadelphia 17: how it played out
We had Jacksonville at 78%. The market had Jacksonville by 7.5. Jacksonville won 19-17 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
We had Jacksonville at 78%. The market had Jacksonville by 7.5. Jacksonville won 19-17 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
2. In the 4th quarter (3:26), Trevor Lawrence found Parker Washington for a 27-yard touchdown, a 37-point swing in win probability towards Jacksonville.
3. With 12 seconds left, Jake Elliott kicked a 48-yard field goal, a 32-point swing in win probability towards Philadelphia.
5. With 1 seconds left, Cam Little kicked a 57-yard field goal, a 50-point swing in win probability towards Jacksonville.
Who won the matchups
Zach Ertz against Jacksonville: Jacksonville won it. Ertz held to 0 yards on 2 targets, against his usual 38.
Jakobi Meyers against Philadelphia: Even. Meyers had 37 yards on 3 targets, close to his usual 45.
Jalen Hurts against Jacksonville: Even. Hurts at -0.02 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.05.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 5; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-11T10-29-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.