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SFPhiladelphia v Jacksonville in London: what decides it
PHI v JAX in London, Sunday 2:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Model JAX 78%, market JAX 78%.
Week 5, Sunday 2:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Philadelphia and Jacksonville meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London. Jacksonville are the designated home team, but a neutral ground takes away the usual home edge, and our model prices it as neutral: it predicts the game both ways round and averages them. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market.
How they have played so far
| PHI | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.11 (29th) | +0.18 (4th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.07 (27th) | -0.06 (7th) |
| Offence success rate | 37% (30th) | 50% (3rd) |
| Third-down conversion | 36% (23rd) | 52% (4th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 24% (23rd) | 22% (12th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 13% (32nd) | 25% (12th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60% (16th) | 86% (2nd) |
Season to date, weeks 1-4 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Jacksonville's offence (4th in EPA per play) meets a Philadelphia defence ranked 27th — that's the mismatch to watch. Jacksonville's defence (7th) should have the upper hand on Philadelphia's offence (29th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 4 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Away from home, for both of them
Philadelphia are 2-0 in 2 international games since 2007; Jacksonville are 7-7 in 14 international games since 2007. The last time these two met outside the US was at Wembley Stadium in 2018: Philadelphia won 24-18. Neither travel record goes into the model: samples that small say more about the opponents they drew than about playing abroad.
Matchups to watch
Zach Ertz against Jacksonville: no obvious soft spot. Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Ertz's likeliest route is intermediate throws (24% of his targets), where they rank 11th. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 8th percentile for separation and 15th for hands, and Montaric Brown, Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
Jakobi Meyers against Philadelphia: no obvious soft spot. Philadelphia are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Meyers's likeliest route is intermediate throws (38% of his targets), where they rank 12th. Work the left side: 32% of his targets go that way and Philadelphia rank 24th defending throws there.
Jalen Hurts against Jacksonville: a tough day in the air. Jacksonville rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (11th). Pressure: Jacksonville are 28th at getting sacks, and Philadelphia are 15th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Jacksonville at 78% (medium confidence), with a line of JAX by 10.8. The market agrees on the side at 78% (JAX by 7.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-11T10-29-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.