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NODetroit at Carolina: what decides it
DET at CAR, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model DET 70%, market DET 62%.
Week 4, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Detroit visit Carolina. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| DET | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.13 (7th) | +0.05 (10th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.15 (29th) | -0.02 (14th) |
| Offence success rate | 51% (4th) | 42% (19th) |
| Third-down conversion | 41% (15th) | 37% (23rd) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 22% (15th) | 34% (32nd) |
| Pressure rate generated | 23% (14th) | 26% (7th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 80% (4th) | 60% (18th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-3 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Carolina's offence (10th in EPA per play) meets a Detroit defence ranked 29th — that's the mismatch to watch. Detroit's pass rush (14th in pressure generated) against a Carolina line ranked 32nd in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup.
A caveat worth keeping: that's 3 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Amon-Ra St. Brown against Carolina: best way in: short throws. Carolina rank 27th against short throws, which make up 66% of Brown's targets. Work the left side: 35% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 30th defending throws there.
Tetairoa McMillan against Detroit: the shot plays are there. Detroit rank 28th against deep balls, and 21% of McMillan's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Don't force short throws: they've been McMillan's worst return (-0.22 EPA a target), and Detroit are 11th there.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Detroit at 70% (medium confidence), with a line of DET by 5.6. The market agrees on the side at 62% (DET by 3.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-01T09-09-17Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
